Using Nonlinear Modeling to Predict Peak Discharge and Average Breach Width from a Breached Embankment

Rasoul Azimi1, Ali Reza Vatankhah*2, Salah Kouchakzadeh3

ABSTRACT

Some statistical models have been studied to predict peak discharge and average breach width from a breached embankment dam based on past dam failure data. The suggested models peak discharge Qp, has related to average width of the embankment Wavg, water volume above the breach bottom at the time of failure Vw, height of water above the breach bottom at the time of failure Hw, height of the embankment above the breach bottom Hb. Our models are presented with different independent variables for peak outflow prediction. In addition, average breach width Bavg, has related to Vw and Hb besides failure mode for empirical model. A comparison between the estimated with actual data shows reasonable agreement to proposed models.

Keywords: Average breach width; Dam failure; Embankment; Peak discharge

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